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Expected Value (EV) Calculator

Check what a bet is worth given your odds and your win probability.

How it works

Expected value is the long-run average of a bet: (win probability x profit) minus (loss probability x stake). Positive EV means the price is better than your estimate of the true chance; negative EV means the price is worse.

The hard part is the win probability. A useful starting point is the no-vig fair probability from the market, then adjust from there if you think you know something the market does not.

Calculators show the math. The CappingAlpha rankings do the rest: every game, every day, run through our proprietary scoring engine.

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